Name: When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?
Start: 2025-08-12T18:32:58.194465Z
End: 2025-09-30T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the date range (PT) Taylor Swift officially releases her recently announced album "The Life of a Showgirl".

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

If Taylor Swift releases the album under a different name other than “The Life of a Showgirl” as long as it is clearly identifiable as the same project that had been announced as “The Life of a Showgirl.”

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.


Before September

September 1-15

September 16-30

After September

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

Taylor Swift's new album 'The Life of a Showgirl' is scheduled to be released on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift's new album 'The Life of a Showgirl' has less than 2,500,000 in sales for the chart date of  'The Life of a Showgirl' debut week, on the finalized version of hitsdailydouble.com's "HITS TOP 50" list. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the figure in the column titled "Activity" once the named list is finalized.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming.

If the chart specified herein is rendered permanently unavailable or does not list 'The Life of a Showgirl', another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" album debuts at #1 on the Billboard 200 chart for the week of its release. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If this album has not been released by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" debuts at #1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Taylor Swift officially releases a new album between July 30 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The resolution source will be any official Taylor Swift streaming or download site, e.g., Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Taylor Swift release an album by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Taylor Swift officially releases a new song between September 3 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases/remasters, remixes, acoustic versions, re-recordings of previously released songs will not count, only new songs, officially released by Taylor Swift under her name, will qualify toward this market's resolution. Taylor Swift featuring on another artist's song will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by September 30?

Taylor Swift’s 12th studio album, The Life of a Showgirl, is scheduled for release on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Taylor Swift mentions Travis Kelce’s name anywhere on the official audio of the new album; otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, either the first name “Travis”, the nickname "Trav", or the last name “Kelce” will suffice as long as it is audibly performed by Taylor Swift herself. Other nicknames, initials, references, or mentions by other performing artists will not suffice.

If the album release is delayed in 2025, the market will remain open. If the release is delayed beyond 2025 or the album is canceled, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be the officially released audio of the new album on any official streaming or download site, e.g., Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Taylor Swift mention Travis Kelce on her new album?

This market will resolve according to the number of consecutive weeks that The Life of a Showgirl holds the #1 spot on the Billboard 200.

If the album does not debut as #1 or is otherwise not released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (0).

Consecutive weeks are counted based on Billboard’s official weekly Billboard 200 chart publications. 

The resolution source will be based on Billboard’s official Billboard 200 chart.

Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 11 straight weeks?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Drake release an album in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.    

The resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Blackpink (블랙핑크, BLɅϽKPIИK) officially releases a new album between June 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The resolution source will be any official Blackpink streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift holds the top 10 spots (1-10) on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week titled “week of October 18, 2025”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be Billboard.com

Taylor Swift holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18th?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant before she announces that she is married to Travis Kelce. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy or marriage announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.

If Taylor Swift does not announce that she is pregnant or married to Travis Kelce by August 31, 2026 ET, or their engagement is otherwise broken off, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be used.

Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BTS (방탄소년단) releases any new music track credited to the group between June 3 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The track must be publicly released through major music platforms (e.g., Spotify, Apple Music, or YouTube) and must be announced via official BTS or BigHit Music channels. The release must include new musical content; re-releases, remasters, or compilations of previously released songs do not count unless they contain newly recorded material.

Tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than "BTS" as a group will not count toward resolution.

The resolution source will be any official BTS streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.


Will BTS release any tracks in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's marriage takes place by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resole to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Britney Spears announces a new tour between December 29, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Britney Spears will go on tour within the stated timeframe will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when she actually does so.

The resolution source will be an announcement from Britney Spears or her official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Britney Spears tour in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA VI released before June 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA VI released in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if One Direction either performs together, releases new music as a group, or publicly announces they will do either of these things by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that One Direction will perform together or release new music as a group before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when they actually do so.

Qualifying performances include live events, televised appearances, online streaming, etc. Releases include any single, EP, or album credited to "One Direction." All living members of the group must be part of an event for it to qualify as a reunion.

The resolution source will be an announcement from One Direction or its official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

One Direction reunion in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lana Del Rey and/or Jeremy Dufrene announce their intention to divorce between December 29, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Lana Del Rey and/or Jeremy Dufrene or their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Lana Del Rey divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if another official trailer for the next GTA (GTA VI) is released by Rockstar Games or any of its official accounts, including but not limited to Rockstar's official website, YouTube channel, Twitter, or any other official social media platform between July 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An "official trailer" is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games.

This market will resolve immediately if such an official trailer is released by the expiry date. If no official trailer is released by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".

Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Sabrina Carpenter song reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between September 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will a Sabrina Carpenter song reach #1 again this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok iOS app is no longer available for download on the United States Apple App Store at any point between September 15, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, this will not count as a removal.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


TikTok removed from App Store by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Half-Life 3 or a differently titled game continuing the Half-Life series is officially released in the US by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Valve Corporation.

Half-Life 3 released in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by May 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) will not be released by May 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by May 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this will qualify as a postponement.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA 6 launch postponed?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MrBeast hosts another livestream which features himself, live, on Twitch, between September 2 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note: This market refers to livestreams launched by MrBeast on his official, herein named channels. Any kind of pre-recorded videos or livestreams on other channels will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the named official MrBeast channel: https://www.twitch.tv/mrbeast6000


Another MrBeast Twitch livestream by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is no longer host of their respective show for any length of time between September 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of this person's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

If the owning network or its parent company announces the show that the listed person hosts is cancelled within timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the listed person or the owning network of the show that they host, however, a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Jon Stewart cancelled by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Justin Bieber song reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between September 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between July 16 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.

Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new HomePod mini product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "HomePod mini" and be recognized as a successor to the original HomePod mini product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new HomePod mini product released without a number, under a designation other than HomePod mini 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the HomePod mini and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song released by GELO after March 31 is on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point between April 1, and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).

Will GELO drop another Billboard top 100 hit in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hailey Bieber announces that she is pregnant between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Hailey Bieber or her representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of the AirTag 2 launches at $29.99 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the AirTag 2 as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail pricing in the United States on the first official day of its release.

If the price differs between configurations, this market will resolve according to the lower price of the version that includes the full standard AirTag 2 model with no additional features, accessories, or services.

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

If the AirTag 2 is not released by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Apple Store (online or retail pricing), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if ByteDance announces their intention to sell TikTok by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A public announcement of the intention to sell TikTok will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes any formal declaration made by ByteDance or its authorized representatives regarding their plans to sell or transfer ownership of TikTok.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ByteDance. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a social iOS app owned by OpenAI is available for installation on the US iOS app store by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions.

A "social app" refers to an iOS application whose primary function is facilitating social interaction between users, such as messaging, content sharing, or community engagement.

The primary resolution source will be the US iOS app store, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


OpenAI social app in 2025?

This market will resolve according to how much more “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” (2025) will gross domestically on its opening weekend compared against "The Senior" (2025).

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on The Numbers “Box Office” tab for "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Big-Bold-Beautiful-Journey-A-(2025)#tab=summary) and “The Senior” (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Senior-The-(2025)#tab=summary) will be used once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (September 19 - September 21) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). 

If “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” (2025) does not gross more domestically on its opening weekend compared to "The Senior" (2025), this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note that this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether 'domestic' refers to only the USA, or to the USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by September 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross less than 125% of "The Senior"?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line in 2025 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple. 

Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?

Kamala Harris is scheduled to join the Rachel Maddow Show on September 22, 2025, 9 PM ET. (see: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/kamala-harris-will-be-rachel-maddow-s-guest-on-monday-sept-22-247645765799)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris says the listed term during this appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Kamala Harris or the Rachel Maddow Show, or otherwise is not released by September 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.

Will Kamala Harris say "107 Days" on the Rachel Maddow Show on September 22?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public between August 25 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only files which were created prior to the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET) will qualify. 

Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?

On May 5, 2025, Rihanna revealed she was pregnant with her third child with A$AP Rocky at the 2025 Met Gala.

This market will resolve to "Boy" if Rihanna, A$AP Rocky, or one of their official representatives announces that they are having a boy.

This market will resolve to "Girl" if Rihanna, A$AP Rocky, or one of their official representatives announces that they are having a girl.

If the biological sex of Rihanna’s child remains undisclosed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50".

If Rihanna gives birth to more than one child from this pregnancy, this market will resolve based on the biological sex of the children. If all children are of the same biological sex, the market will resolve as "Boy" if all are male, or "Girl" if all are female. If the children are of different sexes, the market will resolve to "50-50".

This market refers only to the current pregnancy. Any future pregnancies will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information Rihanna and A$AP Rocky however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Rihanna Baby: Boy or Girl?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?

Epstein accusers announced their intent to compile a list of names they assert were regularly in the Epstein world. More information can be found here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yvpgyjed8o

This market will resolve to "Yes if the listed person is mentioned in this list. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If no qualifying list is released by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on any qualifying list released during this market's timeframe. If multiple lists are released, all will be considered.

The resolution source will be the consensus of credible reporting.

Will Prince Andrew be named in the Epstein survivors' list?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" between September 18, and  December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Jimmy Kimmel is definitively fired from his position as host of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!", or otherwise quits, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If ABC or its parent company announces "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" is cancelled within timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the relevant episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!", however a consensus of credible reporting, including announcements made by ABC, may also be used.

Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Selena Gomez gets married to Benny Blanco by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Gomez and/or Blanco announce that they are ending their relationship or engagement within the stated timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Selena Gomez, Benny Blanco, and/or their official representatives. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Selena Gomez married in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NewJeans (뉴진스, NJZ) gives at least one live performance as a group at any point between June 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying performance must involve at least three members of NewJeans performing together under the group name "NewJeans" in front of a live audience or as part of a livestreamed or televised event.

Prerecorded performances aired in 2025 that were filmed earlier will not count. Solo or sub-unit performances will not count. Dance practices or behind-the-scenes content do not qualify as performances for this market.

The resolution source will be official announcements from NewJeans (including verified social media) and ADOR, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

September 16-30
$25,395 Vol.
1%

After September
$17,757 Vol.
99%

Market Context

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

Rules

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

Market Context

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

About

Related

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

September 16-30$25,395 Vol.1%

After September$17,757 Vol.99%

Market Context

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

Rules

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

Market Context

When will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl”?

About

Related

September 16-30
$25,395 Vol.
1%

After September
$17,757 Vol.
99%