Name: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Start: 2025-08-07T16:32:57.401533Z
End: 2025-10-01T04:00:00Z

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This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

by September 30, 2025

by December 31, 2025

by March 31, 2026

by June 30, 2026

by December 31, 2026

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between August 5, 2025 at 10:30 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period.

If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between August 5, 2025 at 10:30 AM ET and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period.

If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between July 14, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price of $99,999.99 or lower. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.


Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met during September 2025 ET:

- Fed decreases interest rates by at least 25 bps
- Bitcoin hits $150k
- Ethereum reaches $5000

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bul.png

Bull run: September

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between April 30, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds the market capitalization of the largest publicly traded company in the world. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." 

Market cap values for both BTC and companies will be taken directly from Google Finance. If Google Finance is unavailable, a consensus of credible financial data providers will be used.

Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for BTC.D between Sept 5, 2025, 15:30 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value of 70.00% or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the BTC.D "High" percentage currently available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the percentage according to TradingView BTC.D, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for BTC.D between July 3, 2025, 15:30 and September 30, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value of 70.00% or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the BTC.D "High" percentage currently available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the percentage according to TradingView BTC.D, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before October?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’25” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.

If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025?

On March 11, Senator Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, which aims to purchase 1,000,000 Bitcoin. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1899447562790211883

This market will resolve to "Yes" if this act passes the Senate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/crypto.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any S&P 500 company announces between July 2, 14:00 ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a qualifying company announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from qualifying companies, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin before October?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. 


Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China between July 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

If a Bitcoin hard fork occurs between July 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if the CryptoPunks floor price reaches 60 ETH or higher at any point between July 31, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be NftPriceFloor, specifically the "CryptoPunks price chart" available at https://nftpricefloor.com/cryptopunks, with "1M" selected on the top bar. The price will be determined based on the value shown when hovering over the chart.

Only data from NFTPriceFloor will be used to resolve this market. Prices from other data providers or NFT marketplaces will not be considered.

Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 60 ETH in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for PUMP/USDT between September 18, 2025, 08:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $0.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

This is a market on whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an exploit or hack of value at least $100 million USD equivalent between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Decentralized exchanges and lending protocol hacks will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard (https://rekt.news/leaderboard/), however a credible consensus of reporting may also be used.

Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if the Pudgy Penguins floor price reaches 30 ETH or higher by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be NFT Price Floor, specifically the Pudgy Penguins price chart available at https://nftpricefloor.com/pudgy-penguins, with "1M" selected on the top bar. The price will be determined based on the value shown when mousing over the chart.

Only data from NFT Price Floor will be used to resolve this market. Prices from other data providers or NFT marketplaces will not be considered.

Will Pudgy Penguins floor price hit 30 ETH in 2025?

Two major proposals to upgrade the Bitcoin network are currently under consideration, OP_CTV (BIP 119) and OP_CAT (BIP 347).

This market will resolve according to whichever of the following options happens by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If one upgrade is activated, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" until the resolution time has passed, and the other upgrade has not been activated. This market may not be resolved to "Neither" until the resolution time has passed and neither upgrade has been activated.

If both upgrades are activated at any point, this market may resolve to "Both" immediately.

This market resolves based on whether Bitcoin activates OP_CTV, OP_CAT, or both by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025.

“Activated” means the opcode is live and enforced on mainnet as part of Bitcoin’s consensus rules.

Only the chain recognized as Bitcoin by the economic majority counts, based on hashpower, BTC ticker retention, and adoption by major exchanges, wallets, and infrastructure.

Soft forks count toward this market's resolution. Hard forks only count if the fork becomes the dominant BTC chain (e.g., not a minority fork like Bitcoin Cash).

Testnet, signet, or forks with minority support do not count.

The resolution source for this market will be public sources such as Bitcoin Core, dev mailing lists, and major ecosystem infrastructure.

Will neither OP_CTV nor OP_CAT be activated in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for HYPE (HYPEUSDT) between September 4, 2025, 16:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $70.000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the HYPEUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance HYPEUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

by September 30, 2025
$634,281 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

by December 31, 2025
$218,634 Vol.
26%
0123456789
%

by March 31, 2026
$6,434 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

by June 30, 2026
$6,013 Vol.
53%
0123456789
%

by December 31, 2026
$1,107 Vol.
60%
0123456789
%

Market Context

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Rules

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Market Context

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

About

Related

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

by September 30, 2025$634,281 Vol.<1%0123456789%

by December 31, 2025$218,634 Vol.26%0123456789%

by March 31, 2026$6,434 Vol.40%0123456789%

by June 30, 2026$6,013 Vol.53%0123456789%

by December 31, 2026$1,107 Vol.60%0123456789%

Market Context

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Rules

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Market Context

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

About

Related

by September 30, 2025
$634,281 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

by December 31, 2025
$218,634 Vol.
26%
0123456789
%

by March 31, 2026
$6,434 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

by June 30, 2026
$6,013 Vol.
53%
0123456789
%

by December 31, 2026
$1,107 Vol.
60%
0123456789
%