Name: Tether insolvent in 2025?
Start: 2024-12-29T22:42:17.112405Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tether insolvent in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Bybit, official representatives of Bybit (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Bybit is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Bybit insolvent in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain between February 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the payment must be a publicly announced, official transaction involving the sending of assets or funds; exploratory or experimental transactions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Will Infinex launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed abolished in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if ByteDance announces their intention to sell TikTok by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A public announcement of the intention to sell TikTok will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes any formal declaration made by ByteDance or its authorized representatives regarding their plans to sell or transfer ownership of TikTok.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ByteDance. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

US defaults on debt in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Unit launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be officially announced and made available for transactions by Citigroup or a subsidiary under its direct control.

The token must be actively transferrable and/or tradable; announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Citigroup and its representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Citigroup launches a USD stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Solana in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Solana does not count as holding Solana reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Solana reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Meta Platforms, Inc. has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over the issues outlined in the Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case No. 1:20-cv-03590-JEB) case by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Meta settle with the FTC?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between May 19 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another US debt downgrade in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Solana, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Solana in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meteora officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Meteora, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Meteora launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Ethereum in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Ethereum does not count as holding Ethereum reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. 

The resolution source will be public announcements from OpenAI.


Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?

If a Bitcoin hard fork occurs between July 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Ethereum, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Ethereum in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Will the U.S. national debt hit $38 trillion in 2025?

On April 4, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of enforcement of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which prohibits TikTok in the United States, until September 17, 2025 (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/further-extending-the-tiktok-enforcement-delay/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between July 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government.

If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will TikTok be banned in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between March 9, and December 31, 2025 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ETH flipped in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-operated Designated Contract Market (DCM) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt surpasses 38 trillion dollars at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. 


Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/crypto.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robinhood offers tokenized versions of U.S.-listed equities to U.S.-based users for trading on its platform or an affiliated app it controls by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The tokenized equities must track the price of U.S. stocks such as those listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq. They may be structured as synthetic assets, wrapped instruments, or token representations of real equities, but do not need to confer voting rights or direct ownership.

To qualify, U.S.-based users must be able to buy or sell the tokenized equities during the market period. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between March 12, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents MicroStrategy.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tether insolvent in 2025?

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Tether insolvent in 2025?

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Tether insolvent in 2025?

Order Book

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Tether insolvent in 2025?

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