Name: Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands
Start: 2025-07-07T19:25:17.81859Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius

Frans Timmermans

Geert Wilders

Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok

Dick Schoof

Caroline van der Plas

Rob Jetten

Henri Bontenbal

Ahmed Aboutaleb

Klaas Dijkhoff

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).

Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Party for Freedom (PVV) in the House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Party for Freedom (PVV).

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).

Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the third most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).

Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Czech Republic following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Czech Republic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) in the House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA).

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Will CDA win 22–24 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the fourth most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).

Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by GroenLinks–PvdA in the House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by GroenLinks–PvdA.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April or May 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

The Netherlands will hold general elections on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democrats 66 (D66) party wins 10% or more of all valid votes in the next Dutch parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

If voting in the next Netherlands parliamentary election does not occur by March 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).


Democrats 66 (D66) win 10% or more of votes in Netherlands election?

This market will resolve according to the next appointed Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba. 

Any PM formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor will qualify.

If no new PM is appointed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new PM”. 

If early general elections are called before the new PM has officially been appointed, this market will resolve to “Election called”.

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

The 2025 Tongan general elections will be held on November 30, 2025, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Tonga (Fale Alea ʻo Tonga).

This market will resolve according to the next Prime Minister of Tonga following the election.

Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Tonga is instated by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Tonga, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. 

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. 

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of  the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.  No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is removed from power for any length of time between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of India within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Modi out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Dilan Yeşilgöz ceases party leader of People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD, Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie) for any period of time between August 21 and October 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Yeşilgöz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Yeşilgöz and VVD, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Dilan Yeşilgöz out as VVD leader before Netherlands election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called in 2025?

On September 8, François Bayrou was ousted as French PM after losing his confidence vote. After being appointed, the new Prime Minister may voluntarily ask for a vote of confidence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next French confidence vote passes between September 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 If no vote is called by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Next French confidence vote passes?

This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.


Will None in 2025 occur?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- ANO wins the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election
- Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga wins the 2025 Bolivia presidential election
- LLA wins the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election
- Party for Freedom wins the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
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Elections go right: October

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic by October 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic. 

If voting in the next Czech election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).

Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic by October 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ANO is part of the first ruling coalition that forms after that election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will stay open until a new government of the Czech Republic is officially installed. If no new government is instated by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on official information from the government of the Czech Republic, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will ANO form a government after Czech election ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Moldovan government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place September 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the incoming government passes a confidence vote and is formally appointed in by the president.

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) be part of the next Government of the Moldova?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between September 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31?

The 2025 Irish presidential election must take place by Tuesday, 11 November 2025.

This market will resolve to the individual who wins the next Irish presidential election.

If the result of this election isn't known by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market group will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the he Irish Government, specifically the Electoral Commission (An Coimisiún Toghcháin (see: https://www.electoralcommission.ie/).

Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

The 2025 Lisbon local election will be held on October 12, 2025. Each party or group puts forward a list of candidates, and the list with the most votes makes its top candidate the mayor.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who is elected mayor.

If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Lisbon.

Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nepal adopts a fundamentally different governing system by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "Yes" resolution requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating a clear break in continuity in the government system of Nepal. 

Qualifying circumstances include any takeover that suspends, abrogates, or displaces the 2015 Constitution at the federal level, transfers executive power to an extra-constitutional authority (e.g., a military junta, revolutionary council, or restored monarchy), or dissolves or incapacitates core federal organs, such as the House of Representatives, beyond constitutional boundaries for sustained periods of time. Moreover, any significant change in the form of government (e.g., establishment of a monarchy, a non-secular, Hindu state, or a unitary-non-federal state) will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Non-qualifying circumstances include: changes confined to provincial or local governments, constitutional amendments validly enacted under Article 274 that do not establish a change in the form of government, or any routine political events within constitutional boundaries such as prime-ministerial resignation, cabinet reshuffle, coalition re-composition, caretaker cabinets, votes of confidence, dissolution of the House, snap elections, imposition of states of emergency, army deployments or similar.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from revolutionary, rebel, or exile groups will only qualify if the Government of Nepal no longer administers the majority of the Nepalese population within Nepal for a sustained period (This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication). 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the Nepalese government fall by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time between March 23, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pierre Poilievre or the Conservative Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?

Nicușor Dan, the current Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election to become the next elected Mayor of Bucharest. 

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the by-election will not be considered. 

If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

The 2025 New Orleans mayoral election will be held on October 11, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from New Orleans.

Will Helena Moreno win the 2025 New Orleans mayoral election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 25th Knesset, which is the sitting parliament of Israel, is dissolved between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indonesia president, Prabowo Subianto, is removed from power for any length of time between September 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Prabowo Subianto will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Indonesia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Subianto out as president of Indonesia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

This market will resolve to according to the if the candidate who wins the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Fed governor announces they have resigned or will resign between August 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that a governor announce that they have resigned or will resign. Whether they actually resign will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Henri Bontenbal
$22,261 Vol.
46%
0123456789
%

Frans Timmermans
$27,935 Vol.
35%
0123456789
%

Geert Wilders
$188,799 Vol.
8%
0123456789
%

Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius
$18,848 Vol.
4%

Dick Schoof
$7,705 Vol.
3%

Klaas Dijkhoff
$6,700 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Ahmed Aboutaleb
$7,757 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Rob Jetten
$2,193 Vol.
1%

Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok
$13,745 Vol.
<1%

Caroline van der Plas
$11,520 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Rules

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

About

Related

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Henri Bontenbal$22,261 Vol.46%0123456789%

Frans Timmermans$27,935 Vol.35%0123456789%

Geert Wilders$188,799 Vol.8%0123456789%

Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius$18,848 Vol.4%

Dick Schoof$7,705 Vol.3%

Klaas Dijkhoff$6,700 Vol.2%0123456789%

Ahmed Aboutaleb$7,757 Vol.1%0123456789%

Rob Jetten$2,193 Vol.1%

Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok$13,745 Vol.<1%

Caroline van der Plas$11,520 Vol.<1%

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Rules

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands

About

Related

Henri Bontenbal
$22,261 Vol.
46%
0123456789
%

Frans Timmermans
$27,935 Vol.
35%
0123456789
%

Geert Wilders
$188,799 Vol.
8%
0123456789
%

Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius
$18,848 Vol.
4%

Dick Schoof
$7,705 Vol.
3%

Klaas Dijkhoff
$6,700 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Ahmed Aboutaleb
$7,757 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Rob Jetten
$2,193 Vol.
1%

Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok
$13,745 Vol.
<1%

Caroline van der Plas
$11,520 Vol.
<1%