Name: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?
Start: 2025-06-03T20:08:30.200448Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This is a market on the possibility of Lee Jae-myung being removed from his position as president of South Korea by a specified date. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between June 3 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Lee Jae-myungl is impeached by the National Assembly, however the Constitutional Court does not uphold the impeachment by this market's end date, it will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

For this market to resolve to "Yes" Lee Jae-myung must have actually ceased to be President of South Korea before this market's end date; an announcement that Lee Jae-myung will resign at a later time will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


August 31

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between June 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Lee Jae-myungl is impeached by the National Assembly, however the Constitutional Court does not uphold the impeachment by this market's end date, it will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

For this market to resolve to "Yes" Lee Jae-myung must have actually ceased to be President of South Korea before this market's end date; an announcement that Lee Jae-myung will resign at a later time will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


December 31

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Lee Jae-myung impeached in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested  or detained by law enforcement between March 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Kim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if member of the National Assembly Lee Jun-seok is arrested or detained by law enforcement between August 20, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Lee Jun-seok arrested by September 30?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. 

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. 

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of  the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.  No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indonesia president, Prabowo Subianto, is removed from power for any length of time between September 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Prabowo Subianto will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Indonesia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Subianto out as president of Indonesia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the South Korean government officially designates Sejong as the national capital by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Designation must come through the passage of a constitutional amendment that names Sejong as the capital.

Other actions that legally and officially make Sejong the capital of South Korea under South Korean law will qualify only if they remain legally valid through the resolution date without being overturned, blocked, or declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will South Korea move its capital to Sejong in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ahmed al-Sharaa, the President of Syria, is removed from power for any length of time between July 15,, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Al-Sharaa will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, is officially dismissed, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as leader of Syria within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of insurrection, abuse of power, or other criminal acts stemming from his martial law declaration and related subsequent actions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2025 regardless of whether Yoon's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chungin (Roy) Lee serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 9 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Choo Kyung-ho spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between September 4 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Choo Kyung-ho spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Choo Kyung-ho in jail by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between July 6, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between December 28, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Clancy is no longer serving as CEO of Twitch for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Dan Clancy's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Twitch and/or Dan Clancy, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea between January 29 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is removed from power for any length of time between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of India within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Modi out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), current head of the sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is removed from power for any length of time between August 27, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hemedti will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, is officially dismissed, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Hemedti out of power by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro out in 2025?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between September 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, current leader of the Yemeni Houthis, is removed from power for any length of time between Sepember 1, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Abdul-Malik will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, is officially dismissed, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson out as Speaker in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shaun Maguire ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with Sequoia Capital for any length of time between July 7, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with Sequoia Capital.

An official announcement of Shaun Maguire’s departure from Sequoia Capital (e.g., a statement from Sequoia or Maguire indicating he will no longer be engaged with Sequoia) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shaun Maguire out at Sequoia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between North Korean and South Korean military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, the deployment of balloons, audio broadcasts, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: South Korea's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not part of the military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?

his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time between May 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Seychelles on September 27, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Seychellois government, specifically the Electoral Commission of Seychelles (ECS) (https://ecs.sc/).

Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between March 12, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between August 19 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Karen Bass is no longer serving as Mayor of Los Angeles for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Karen Bass's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

December 31
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Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

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Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

Market Context

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

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Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

December 31$519,709 Vol.2%0123456789%

Market Context

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

Rules

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

Market Context

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea by...?

About

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December 31
$519,709 Vol.
2%
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