Name: India unbans TikTok by December 31?
Start: 2025-09-05T17:52:33.359662Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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In June 2020, TikTok was banned in India on national security grounds. A recent warming in relations between India and China have some speculating that the ban might be lifted in 2025. See more here: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tiktok-back-in-india-govt-responds-amid-buzz-over-chinese-app-bytedance-return-101755885334258.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Indian ban on TikTok is ordered to be lifted in full by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An order made before the resolution date that the ban be lifted will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the order goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Indian government and TikTok/ByteDance, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

India unbans TikTok by December 31?

On April 4, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of enforcement of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which prohibits TikTok in the United States, until September 17, 2025 (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/further-extending-the-tiktok-enforcement-delay/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between July 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government.

If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will TikTok be banned in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if ByteDance announces their intention to sell TikTok by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A public announcement of the intention to sell TikTok will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes any formal declaration made by ByteDance or its authorized representatives regarding their plans to sell or transfer ownership of TikTok.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ByteDance. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok iOS app is no longer available for download on the United States Apple App Store at any point between September 15, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, this will not count as a removal.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


TikTok removed from App Store by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China between July 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?

On April 4, China implemented a series of restrictions on the export of a variety of rare earth metals. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Chinese government officially lifts, removes, or reduces any of the export restrictions placed on rare earth metals on April 4, between July 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The issuance of a qualifying official act by China within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or reduction of the stated export ban does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is removed from power for any length of time between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of India within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Modi out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of India officially announces a reduction of imports of Russian crude oil by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify regardless of if/when the policy goes into effect. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Government of India. 

India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of India officially announces a full halt to imports of Russian crude oil by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Statements referencing a partial reduction, pause, or review of purchases will not qualify.

An announcement will qualify regardless of if/when the policy goes into effect. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Government of India. 

Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi visit the US by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of April 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by India, Pakistan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will India invade Pakistan in 2025?

On August 11, 2025, the United States and China announced a 90-day extension of a mutual reduction in tariffs as part of a temporary trade de-escalation agreement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between August 12, and November 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend the 90 day tariff reduction announced on August 12, will qualify.

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


US congress stock trading ban in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.

A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will China blockade Taiwan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed abolished in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Bybit, official representatives of Bybit (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Bybit is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Bybit insolvent in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between June 25 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

China coup attempt in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nepal adopts a fundamentally different governing system by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "Yes" resolution requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating a clear break in continuity in the government system of Nepal. 

Qualifying circumstances include any takeover that suspends, abrogates, or displaces the 2015 Constitution at the federal level, transfers executive power to an extra-constitutional authority (e.g., a military junta, revolutionary council, or restored monarchy), or dissolves or incapacitates core federal organs, such as the House of Representatives, beyond constitutional boundaries for sustained periods of time. Moreover, any significant change in the form of government (e.g., establishment of a monarchy, a non-secular, Hindu state, or a unitary-non-federal state) will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Non-qualifying circumstances include: changes confined to provincial or local governments, constitutional amendments validly enacted under Article 274 that do not establish a change in the form of government, or any routine political events within constitutional boundaries such as prime-ministerial resignation, cabinet reshuffle, coalition re-composition, caretaker cabinets, votes of confidence, dissolution of the House, snap elections, imposition of states of emergency, army deployments or similar.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from revolutionary, rebel, or exile groups will only qualify if the Government of Nepal no longer administers the majority of the Nepalese population within Nepal for a sustained period (This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication). 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the Nepalese government fall by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of semiconductors into the United States by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs on semiconductors from a specific country will qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.

A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New pandemic in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States, currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds for at least some of the tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.


Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-operated Designated Contract Market (DCM) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new country accepts an invitation to join BRICS between July 23 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only new member states, not new partner states, will be considered toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this country will be information from BRICS members (e.g., https://brics.br/en/about-the-brics, etc.); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will BRICS add a new member by December 31?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between September 1, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).  

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
 
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in September?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of pharmaceuticals into the United States by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tariffs specifically targeting pharmaceuticals will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs on pharmaceuticals from a specific country will qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tether insolvent in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

India unbans TikTok by December 31?

Order Book

Market Context

India unbans TikTok by December 31?

Rules

India unbans TikTok by December 31?

Order Book

Market Context

India unbans TikTok by December 31?

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