Name: How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?
Start: 2025-09-16T18:06:54.838443Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to how many days the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM.

Days are counted based on notices checked at 10:00 AM ET each day. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown, this will count; however, announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. 

If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. Notices of emergency furloughs or impacted government operations count toward the shutdown days.  

If no shutdown occurs during the period, this market will resolve to "No shutdown".

The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

No shutdown

1–3

10–29

 How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

US government shutdown in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by October 1, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

US government shutdown by October 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed abolished in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Fed governor announces they have resigned or will resign between August 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that a governor announce that they have resigned or will resign. Whether they actually resign will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed governor resigns by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Barack Obama by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Obama federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 13, 2025, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

US bank failure by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

US defaults on debt in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 12, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

US bank failure by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.


Will None in 2025 occur?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. 

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. 

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of  the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.  No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Solana in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Solana does not count as holding Solana reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Solana reserve in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in 2025 (September 16-17, October 28-29, and December 9-10).

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. 

Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

If no statement is released for the December meeting by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 28 - 29, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 28 - 29, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between September 18 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27–28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no relevant statement is released for this meeting by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, and no qualifying rate cut is announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


US congress stock trading ban in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ceases regular publication of any of the following reports: monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Employment Cost Index, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, “ceases regular publication” means any of the following:

- The BLS officially announces it will no longer publish the report on its regular schedule.
- The BLS misses three consecutive scheduled releases of the report without providing the data within 30 days of each scheduled release date.
- The BLS announces that the report is discontinued, terminated, or permanently suspended.
- Legislative or executive action explicitly prohibits or defunds the publication of the report.

The following do NOT qualify as cessation:
- Temporary delays or postponements followed by subsequent publication (including delays caused by government shutdowns).
- Changes in methodology, seasonal adjustment, or calculation methods while continuing publication.
- Changes in publication frequency (e.g., monthly to quarterly) while maintaining regular releases.
- Format changes (e.g., digital-only, layout changes).
- Publishing preliminary or partial data with full data forthcoming.
- Changes to specific components within a report while the overall data series continues.
- Combining the report with other reports while still publishing the underlying data.
- BLS delays the jobs report due to a shutdown, then publishes it.
- BLS changes CPI methodology but continues publishing monthly CPI.
- BLS shifts employment data from monthly to quarterly.
- The Federal Reserve begins publishing employment data while BLS continues its own.
- BLS website outage delays posting, but data is released via other channels.
- BLS publishes preliminary data pending final adjustments.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will BLS stop reporting payroll data this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of December 31, 2024 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.

-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition

An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
 
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. 

If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.

Major U.S. bank bailout in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US federal income tax is eliminated between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "abolishing the federal income tax" means the elimination of federal income tax obligations for individuals in the US, not merely reductions, suspensions, or alterations to tax rates, brackets, or enforcement policies. The market will not consider executive orders, temporary measures, or proposals that do not become law.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, including announcements from Donald Trump and the IRS, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

The U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2024 was $86,731,619,013.29 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2025 than in December 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).  If no report is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used. 


Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between May 19 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another US debt downgrade in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

No shutdown
$683 Vol.
32%
0123456789
%

1–3
$605 Vol.
44%
0123456789
%

4-9
$1,183 Vol.
16%
0123456789
%

10–29
$1,672 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%

30+
$2,304 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Rules

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

About

Related

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

No shutdown$683 Vol.32%0123456789%

1–3$605 Vol.44%0123456789%

4-9$1,183 Vol.16%0123456789%

10–29$1,672 Vol.10%0123456789%

30+$2,304 Vol.4%0123456789%

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Rules

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

About

Related

No shutdown
$683 Vol.
32%
0123456789
%

1–3
$605 Vol.
44%
0123456789
%

4-9
$1,183 Vol.
16%
0123456789
%

10–29
$1,672 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%

30+
$2,304 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%