Name: China x Taiwan military clash by...?
Start: 2025-01-30T18:59:20.708608Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

June 30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

December 31

China x Taiwan military clash by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as use of water cannons, warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

China x Philippines military clash by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.

A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will China blockade Taiwan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.

A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey between April 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


US x Russia military clash in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between North Korean and South Korean military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, the deployment of balloons, audio broadcasts, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: South Korea's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not part of the military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between June 25 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

China coup attempt in 2025?

On August 11, 2025, the United States and China announced a 90-day extension of a mutual reduction in tariffs as part of a temporary trade de-escalation agreement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between August 12, and November 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend the 90 day tariff reduction announced on August 12, will qualify.

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between August 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi visit the US by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count.

Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

China x India military clash by December 31?

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

NATO article 5 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".


1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.


2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". 

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial or military ship between September 1 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship which are shot down or don't hit a ship will not be considered for this market.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war.

Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.

US civil war in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Turkish soil or any Turkish embassy or consulate between September 9, 3 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Turkey's ground territory or any official Turkish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Turkish soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Turkish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US armed forces conduct a strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target in the North Western hemisphere between September 16 and September 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran for combat operations at any point between June 21, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces in Iran in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China between July 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates another military action on Qatari soil between September 9, 11:00 AM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying "military action" includes any use of kinetic force, or intelligence/special operation executed by the Israeli military on Qatari soil (e.g., if a weapons depot on Qatari soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

If a qualifying military action is widely attributed to Israel, this market may resolve to "Yes" even if the action is not officially confirmed/acknowledged by the Israeli government. 

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Another Israel military action against Qatar by September 30?

On April 4, China implemented a series of restrictions on the export of a variety of rare earth metals. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Chinese government officially lifts, removes, or reduces any of the export restrictions placed on rare earth metals on April 4, between July 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The issuance of a qualifying official act by China within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or reduction of the stated export ban does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between September 1, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).  

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
 
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in September?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. 

If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.

Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1  and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution.

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.


Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. 

Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. 

The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between July 2 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution.

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.


Nuclear weapon detonation before October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Poland initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Belarusian soil or any official Belarusian embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Polish military forces that impact Belarusian ground territory or any official Belarusian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Belarusian soil is hit by a Polish missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Belarusian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Polish ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Polish strike on Belarus by September 30?

his market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea between January 29 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

China x Taiwan military clash by...?

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China x Taiwan military clash by...?

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China x Taiwan military clash by...?

December 31$538,408 Vol.6%

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China x Taiwan military clash by...?

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China x Taiwan military clash by...?

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China x Taiwan military clash by...?

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December 31
$538,408 Vol.
6%